Welcome to The Forecast! It’s been QUITE a while since I last wrote to you, and things have changed a LOT! Most notably, there was a rush for redistricting across the country following a Supreme Court decision. That appears to be wrapped up, and I think we finally have the districts set for the 2026 election.

Also worth noting: it’s Primary Election Day in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina. You can check out those elections here.

Instead of going through the rundown of everything that’s changed since the last time I wrote (which was, in fact, several months ago), I’m just going to give you the state of play right now.

What we are looking at in the Senate is a remarkable turnaround for the Democrats. If you had asked me a year ago what I thought the odds of a Democratic Senate majority were post-2026, I would’ve said 0%, without hesitation. That view has changed dramatically - right now, the Model actually gives Democrats the edge in the race for control of the Senate. It believes they are on track to flip Maine (R-Collins) and North Carolina (R-OPEN). With those flips assumed, and should they hold the other seats the Model expects they will continue to hold, that puts Democrats at 49 seats - they need 51.

So, where do we look? There are currently four Toss-Up seats.

The first of the four, and the most likely to flip at this point, is Ohio (R-Husted). Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has seen some positive polling, indicating that this will be an incredibly important race to watch in November.

The second of the four, and what is considered the most competitive Senate race at this moment, is Texas (R-OPEN). Democrats nominated James Talarico back in March, and just a few weeks ago, Republican Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff to face Talarico. Paxton has been widely considered the weaker of the two candidates due to prominent scandals, but was favored by the Republican primary electorate for his more conservative views. Polling shows an extremely tight race here, and at this point, this state is considered by the Model to be the Majority Maker in the Senate.

The third Toss-Up is Iowa (R-OPEN). Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring, and last week, Iowa Republicans voted for Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) to be their nominee. Democrats chose State Rep. Josh Turek (D) to be the challenger. The Democrat represents a more conservative district in Iowa, and was seen as the more moderate candidate in the Democratic primary. The limited polling available shows a tight race here, as well - and with a strong candidate for governor, Democrats are hoping there may be enough momentum to cross the finish line in the Senate race here.

Finally, the fourth (and most difficult) race: Nebraska (R-Ricketts). I know, this is shocking. Here’s the situation: Democrats nominated a candidate who has promised to drop out before November to give Independent Dan Osborn a shot at taking the seat. Mr. Osborn has officially said he would not caucus with either party if elected to the Senate, but for the purposes of trying to predict the election, he is being placed in the Democratic column. Mr. Osborn ran an unexpectedly close race against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) in 2024, losing by a little more than 6.5%. Now, I’m not ENTIRELY sure on Senate rules, but I believe that, if Mr. Osborn is elected to the Senate, Democrats will only need 50 seats to have control (as Republicans would be knocked down to 49).

In other words, we’ve got a VERY interesting few months ahead. The odds of a Democratic Senate majority are now at 59.3%, a rating of Toss-Up.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats have fared decently well in the face of the redistricting across the South I mentioned earlier. With 218 seats needed for a majority, Democrats right now sit with an expected 220 seats, Republicans with 188, and 27 Toss-Up seats. Democrats have a 91.5% chance of flipping control of the House, a rating of Likely D. The closest seat right now is NY-01 (R-LaLota).

Right now, there is only a single Toss-Up race for governor, and that’s in Nevada, where incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking re-election. There are several competitive states outside of that, including states that lean for Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, and Wisconsin) and states that lean for Republicans (Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Texas). We’ll be keeping an eye on ALL these races heading into November!

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!