Historical Election Results

See how the CM Election Predictions model performed in previous elections, broken down by year and race type.

CM Election Predictions Logo CM ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Historical Election Results

How the CM Election Predictions model has performed, cycle by cycle – including Presidential, Senate, House, and Gubernatorial accuracy.

Contest Accuracy

Presidential 94.64%
Senate 90.00%
House 95.33%
Gubernatorial 89.57%
Explore
Jump to
Presidential
Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted EVs
  • Obama (D): 290 D Win
  • Romney (R): 206
  • Toss-Ups: 42
Actual EVs
  • Obama (D): 332 D Win
  • Romney (R): 206
Individual Contest Accuracy
98.21%
House
Prediction: Likely R
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 179
  • Republicans: 237 R Win
  • Toss-Ups: 19
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 188
  • Republicans: 247 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
96.55%
Presidential
Prediction: Solid D
Predicted EVs
  • Clinton (D): 278 D Win
  • Trump (R): 191
  • Toss-Ups: 69
Actual EVs
  • Clinton (D): 232
  • Trump (R): 306 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
91.07%
Senate
Prediction: Lean D
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 47
  • Republicans: 50
  • Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 48
  • Republicans: 52 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
90.91%
House
Prediction: Lean D
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 189
  • Republicans: 208
  • Toss-Ups: 38
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 194
  • Republicans: 241 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
95.86%
Gubernatorial
Delaware Solid D
Odds: 99.64% Result: D Win
Indiana Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Missouri Lean D
Odds: 77.54% Result: R Win
Montana Lean D
Odds: 74.62% Result: D Win
New Hampshire Lean D
Odds: 79.29% Result: R Win
North Carolina Toss-Up
Result: D Win
North Dakota Solid R
Odds: 100.00% Result: R Win
Oregon Lean D
Odds: 89.40% Result: D Win
Utah Solid R
Odds: 99.99% Result: R Win
Vermont Toss-Up
Odds: 59.52% Result: R Win
Washington Likely D
Odds: 88.76% Result: D Win
West Virginia Lean D
Odds: 73.99% Result: D Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
83.33%
Gubernatorial
New Jersey Likely D
Odds: 88.80% Result: D Win
Virginia Lean D
Odds: 72.84% Result: D Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
100.00%
Senate
Prediction: Likely R
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 48
  • Republicans: 50 R Win
  • Toss-Ups: 2
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 47
  • Republicans: 53 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
85.71%
House
Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 226 D Win
  • Republicans: 148
  • Toss-Ups: 61
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 235 D Win
  • Republicans: 199
Individual Contest Accuracy
93.10%
Gubernatorial
Alabama Solid R
Odds: 97.32% Result: R Win
Alaska Lean R
Odds: 68.43% Result: R Win
Arizona Likely R
Odds: 80.18% Result: R Win
Arkansas Solid R
Odds: 94.15% Result: R Win
California Solid D
Odds: 96.89% Result: D Win
Colorado Solid D
Odds: 95.11% Result: D Win
Connecticut Lean D
Odds: 74.96% Result: D Win
Florida Lean D
Odds: 73.39% Result: R Win
Georgia Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Hawai'i Solid D
Odds: 99.22% Result: D Win
Idaho Likely R
Odds: 90.31% Result: R Win
Illinois Solid D
Odds: 93.56% Result: D Win
Iowa Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Kansas Toss-Up
Result: D Win
Maine Likely D
Odds: 83.81% Result: D Win
Maryland Lean R
Odds: 76.06% Result: R Win
Massachusetts Solid R
Odds: 98.75% Result: R Win
Michigan Likely D
Odds: 81.48% Result: D Win
Minnesota Likely D
Odds: 89.77% Result: D Win
Nebraska Solid R
Odds: 99.13% Result: R Win
Nevada Lean R
Odds: 77.50% Result: D Win
New Hampshire Lean D
Odds: 62.12% Result: R Win
New Mexico Likely D
Odds: 84.41% Result: D Win
New York Solid D
Odds: 99.64% Result: D Win
Ohio Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Oklahoma Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Oregon Likely D
Odds: 87.75% Result: D Win
Pennsylvania Solid D
Odds: 98.52% Result: D Win
Rhode Island Likely D
Odds: 89.89% Result: D Win
South Carolina Likely R
Odds: 88.89% Result: R Win
South Dakota Likely R
Odds: 82.85% Result: R Win
Tennessee Solid R
Odds: 94.88% Result: R Win
Texas Solid R
Odds: 94.70% Result: R Win
Vermont Lean R
Odds: 66.41% Result: R Win
Wisconsin Lean D
Odds: 63.98% Result: D Win
Wyoming Solid R
Odds: 99.74% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
86.11%
Gubernatorial
Kentucky Lean D
Odds: 75.92% Result: D Win
Louisiana
No prediction was made for this contest due to the blanket primary system.
Mississippi Likely R
Odds: 80.09% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
100.00%
Presidential
Prediction: Solid D
Predicted EVs
  • Biden (D): 341 D Win
  • Trump (R): 163
  • Toss-Ups: 34
Actual EVs
  • Biden (D): 306 D Win
  • Trump (R): 232
Individual Contest Accuracy
91.07%
Senate
Prediction: Lean D
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 48
  • Republicans: 49
  • Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 50+VP D Win
  • Republicans: 50
Individual Contest Accuracy
88.24%
House
Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 230 D Win
  • Republicans: 163
  • Toss-Ups: 42
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 222 D Win
  • Republicans: 213
Individual Contest Accuracy
94.25%
Gubernatorial
Delaware Solid D
Odds: 99.98% Result: D Win
Indiana Solid R
Odds: 97.65% Result: R Win
Missouri Lean R
Odds: 61.57% Result: R Win
Montana Toss-Up
Result: R Win
New Hampshire Likely R
Odds: 87.62% Result: R Win
North Carolina Likely D
Odds: 83.48% Result: D Win
North Dakota Solid R
Odds: 100.00% Result: R Win
Utah Solid R
Odds: 99.98% Result: R Win
Vermont Solid R
Odds: 99.09% Result: R Win
Washington Solid D
Odds: 96.31% Result: D Win
West Virginia Lean R
Odds: 70.55% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
90.91%
Gubernatorial
New Jersey Lean D
Odds: 75.33% Result: D Win
Virginia Toss-Up
Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
50.00%
Senate
Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 47
  • Republicans: 50
  • Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 51 D Win
  • Republicans: 49
Individual Contest Accuracy
88.24%
House
Prediction: Lean R
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 179
  • Republicans: 212
  • Toss-Ups: 44
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 213
  • Republicans: 222 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
94.94%
Gubernatorial
Alabama Solid R
Odds: 99.99% Result: R Win
Alaska
No prediction was made for this contest due to the new ranked choice system.
Arizona Likely R
Odds: 80.00% Result: D Win
Arkansas Solid R
Odds: 98.19% Result: R Win
California Solid D
Odds: 97.81% Result: D Win
Colorado Likely D
Odds: 90.73% Result: D Win
Connecticut Lean D
Odds: 74.81% Result: D Win
Florida Likely R
Odds: 86.06% Result: R Win
Georgia Likely R
Odds: 86.57% Result: R Win
Hawai'i Likely D
Odds: 91.60% Result: D Win
Idaho Solid R
Odds: 99.76% Result: R Win
Illinois Likely D
Odds: 84.06% Result: D Win
Iowa Solid R
Odds: 97.19% Result: R Win
Kansas Toss-Up
Result: D Win
Maine Lean D
Odds: 71.78% Result: D Win
Maryland Solid D
Odds: 95.21% Result: D Win
Massachusetts Likely D
Odds: 83.24% Result: D Win
Michigan Lean D
Odds: 61.34% Result: D Win
Minnesota Lean D
Odds: 74.51% Result: D Win
Nebraska Solid R
Odds: 97.09% Result: R Win
Nevada Likely R
Odds: 81.57% Result: R Win
New Hampshire Solid R
Odds: 95.91% Result: R Win
New Mexico Lean D
Odds: 68.00% Result: D Win
New York Likely D
Odds: 90.91% Result: D Win
Ohio Solid R
Odds: 98.59% Result: R Win
Oklahoma Likely R
Odds: 85.80% Result: R Win
Oregon Toss-Up
Result: D Win
Pennsylvania Likely D
Odds: 83.53% Result: D Win
Rhode Island Likely D
Odds: 86.70% Result: D Win
South Carolina Likely R
Odds: 91.19% Result: R Win
South Dakota Solid R
Odds: 99.01% Result: R Win
Tennessee Solid R
Odds: 99.92% Result: R Win
Texas Solid R
Odds: 94.44% Result: R Win
Vermont Solid R
Odds: 99.98% Result: R Win
Wisconsin Lean R
Odds: 60.91% Result: D Win
Wyoming Solid R
Odds: 100.00% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
91.43%
Gubernatorial
Kentucky Lean D
Odds: 69.78% Result: D Win
Louisiana
No prediction was made for this contest due to the blanket primary system.
Mississippi Likely R
Odds: 90.46% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
100.00%
Presidential
Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted EVs
  • Harris (D): 241
  • Trump (R): 262
  • Toss-Ups: 35
Actual EVs
  • Harris (D): 226
  • Trump (R): 312 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
98.21%
Senate
Prediction: Solid R
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 47
  • Republicans: 52 R Win
  • Toss-Ups: 1
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 47
  • Republicans: 53 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
97.06%
House
Prediction: Lean R
Predicted Seats
  • Democrats: 199
  • Republicans: 209
  • Toss-Ups: 27
Actual Seats
  • Democrats: 215
  • Republicans: 220 R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
97.24%
Gubernatorial
Delaware Solid D
Odds: 99.59% Result: D Win
Indiana Likely R
Odds: 84.07% Result: R Win
Missouri Likely R
Odds: 84.09% Result: R Win
Montana Solid R
Odds: 92.28% Result: R Win
New Hampshire Lean R
Odds: 68.28% Result: R Win
North Carolina Lean D
Odds: 78.55% Result: D Win
North Dakota Solid R
Odds: 100.00% Result: R Win
Utah Solid R
Odds: 99.99% Result: R Win
Vermont Solid R
Odds: 100.00% Result: R Win
Washington Likely D
Odds: 85.66% Result: D Win
West Virginia Lean R
Odds: 73.21% Result: R Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
100.00%
Gubernatorial
New Jersey Lean D
Odds: 76.19% Result: D Win
Virginia Likely D
Odds: 81.54% Result: D Win
Individual Contest Accuracy
100.00%